Poker Defense Nova X2 Guide
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Villanova vs Ohio State
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Villanova Is Still Very Talented
Easily the biggest question facing Villanova this season is whether it can replace Eric Paschall and Phil Booth, who played by far the most amount of minutes on the team and led it in scoring.
From a talent perspective, the Wildcats have nothing to worry about. They feature this year’s 16th-ranked recruit in Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, the 57th-ranked Justin Moore, and last year’s 44th-ranked Cole Swider in expanded roles.
Collin Gillespie, last year’s third-leading scorer on the team, is a familiar piece, as is Saddiq Bey. Both Bey and Gillespie converted just over 37 percent of their three-point opportunities last year.
Gillespie attempted more threes and, as he improved in creating his own shot, drained more unassisted threes. Bey really developed his shooting stroke as the season progressed. His 2-for-5 performance from three in the team’s opener shows continuity into his second season.
Villanova’s Style
For its offense, Villanova’s three-point shooting ability is crucial. Annually, Nova players attempt three-pointers at one of the nation’s highest rates.
Fundamentally, Nova likes to spread the floor and create spacing for its spot-up shooters.
Nova players like to drive in order to draw defenders and then kick it out to a shooter on the perimeter. Gillespie is known for his ability to find an open spot behind the arc where he’s prepared to shoot.
Inside, Nova allows a lot to happen by positioning its „big” on the high post, which forces the opposing center away from the basket. This is where guys like Jermaine Samuels and Robinson-Earl come in handy as they have more room to cut or otherwise attack the basket.
The Wildcats also stretch the defense with positionless guys like the 6-8 Bey and the 6-9 hyped-up shooter Swider, who went 4-for-6 from deep in the team’s opener.
Ohio State Misses Important Defensive Pieces
Because Nova loves to shoot the three and emphasizes lengthy and versatile forwards, it’s important for the defense to be extra flexible and attentive to the perimeter.
Two Buckeyes who’ve cultivated a strong reputation for making opposing three-point shooters uncomfortable are Andre Wesson and Musa Jallow. But both will miss this game – the former due to a fractured eye socket and the latter due to an injured ankle.
Andre Wesson’s replacement, Kyle Young, seems particularly unsuited for this match-up given his rather physical skill set and his lack of comfort along the perimeter.
Ohio State may seem strong defensively based on its opposing field goal percentage. But its competition has also been really weak. Cincinnati managed to find plenty of open shot attempts, but simply couldn’t knock them down. Besides, the Bearcats were playing in their first game in a new offense. Ohio State’s second opponent was UMass Lowell.
Especially without Andre Wesson and Jallow to contend with, Nova’s offense will be comfortable and it easily has the personnel to have a great shooting performance.
What Ohio State Should Want To Do Offensively
Inside, the Buckeyes boast a significant size advantage with the 270-pound Kaleb Wesson against a smaller Nova defense.
Poker Defense Nova X2
But Kaleb Wesson won’t be able to exploit his advantage because Nova is adept at keeping the ball out of the post with the help of lengthy defenders who continue to allow a much lower rate of two-point attempts.
Besides, what is understandable given his size, he’s slow in transition, which is where Nova thrives based on PPP in transition, and slow to rotate to the perimeter. He’s also a notorious foul machine. Last year, he averaged five fouls per 40 minutes.
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Whereas Nova’s most important offensive pieces will thrive, Ohio State’s strongest match-up advantage won’t be such a threat. I don’t think that NCAAB oddsmakers should have Ohio State favored. For the above reasons, I recommend Villanova for an NCAAB Pick.
Best NCAAB Pick: Wildcats +3 at -120 odds with BetOnline